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cerberus
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PostSubject: weak steering currents   Fri Jun 24, 2011 10:58 am

A tropical disturbance developed persistent convection in association with a low-level circulation, and organized into Tropical Depression Twelve-E late on October 1 about 350 miles (565 km) west-northwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Within an environment of weak steering currents, the depression was initially forecast to track slowly west-northwestward and reach winds of 60 mph (95 km/h), but instead it drifted eastward before turning slowly to the west.[40][41] The depression failed to organize and gradually worsened in appearance. Early on October 2, two ships reported southwest winds much further to the north, with the National Hurricane Center indicating that either the center was exceedingly small, that no center existed at the time, or that the center was located far to the north of the thunderstorm activity. Operationally, the center was relocated further to the north,[42] then relocated about 115 miles (185 km) to the south six hours later based on visible satellite images,[43] then again relocated to the north, coinciding with officials issuing the last advisory on the system. By early October 3, the depression possessed only intermittent convection,[44] and later that day it dissipated to the southwest of the Baja California peninsula.[41] Heavy rains from its eastern periphery fell across southwest Mexico, with a maximum total of 6.34 inches (161 mm) at Las Gaviotas/Compostela.[45]



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